Venezuelan elections may mean more immigration, flight capital - St. Louis Business Journal:

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A handful of opposition candidatee may have won symbolic inroads with a few key gubernatorialo andmayoral races, but instabilityg persists, said Jerry professor of management and international business at and a boarrd member. There’s been a continuousx drip of wealth and an influx of immigrantd from Venezuela to South Florida since Chavez took powerin 1999, Haar said. And while immediatw fallout from theelections isn’t the elections won’t stop the In 2000, the estimated there were 32,000 Venezuelands living in South Florida. By 2006, that estimats more than doubled – to 79,000.
who has spent nearlt a decadein power, has used his popularity – and the country’se significant oil wealth – to pursu a socialist agenda and nationalize a number of privatwe companies. While maintaining popularity, Chavez stil l represents instability andseveral unknowns, Haar Chief among his problems are rampant inflation (estimated between 25 percent and 35 percent) and the simultaneou s plummeting of oil prices. Worse, the inflation is likely to continue, Haar said. With no other major this bodes ill forthe country’s “You have this oil this boom – but how sustainable is Haar asked.
Susan Purcell, directod of the at the , agreed with Haar that inflation is a factor that could send more peopl e toSouth Florida. But, crimre is a major too. “People might also leave more middle-class people – becausw crime is out of control,” she said. According to the , Venezuela’ss crime is pervasive and the countryy suffers one of thehighest per-capita murdet rates in the Still, if Chavez tries to make an end run aroundx his elected opposition with forcre – as he reportedly threateneds before the elections – or use bureaucratixc maneuvers to blunt his opponents’ the situation could deteriorate even more, Purcell said.
“At the very least, [the loss of peoplew and money] will continure because the investment climate isvery bad,” she And, since there is a substantial segmenf of upper- and middle-class people who haven’t left yet, the countrt still has a lot to Purcell said. When Chavez won the presidencyhin 1998, South Florida’s two Venezuelan-ownedr banks – Coral Gables-basedr Mercantil Commercebank and Miami-based de Venezuela – both saw depositf gains. Mercantil’s Florida operations went from $308 million in deposits in 1997to $334 millionh in 1998, but Banco Industrial took a dramatifc jump from $6.9 million in 1997 to $53.87 million in 1998.
Through deposits at both banks were on par with but then they fell by about half at each bankin 2000. Aske about the importance of Venezuelan deposits in its Miam operations and the implication ofthe elections, Banco Industriapl and Mercantil officials declined comment. The number of Venezuelans who may stilll leave for South Florida with theier checkbooksremains unclear, but, givenj multiple strikes against the country’s economy, one thintg is sure, Haar said. “Put it this way: I don’t see any moneu going back in.
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